Essentially, a value bet is one placed on an event where the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the probability of it occurring. In other words, the odds are overestimated by the bookmaker, and therefore, the potential winnings will be higher than what they would normally offer.
In most cases, bookmakers tend to set odds quite well for a given event, so value bets are scarce, hence the importance of being able to find them.
How Do Value Bets Work?
Value bets work when the bookmaker makes a mistake in setting the odds for a particular event. Therefore, the odds will be higher than normal, and if we take advantage of this and win, we’ll make a larger profit than usual.
However, this inaccuracy does not usually happen often because bookmakers are losing part of their profit margin, so they establish the value of their odds by combining a macro-analysis of a multitude of statistical data and the previous experience of users betting, so normally they adjust the value correctly, or the ‘discrepancy’ is simply a few cents.
How to Find Value Bets in Nigerian Bookmakers
To find value bets in Nigerian bookmakers, it is necessary to perform a narrowed search in which we limit ourselves to a single sport, for example, football, and to a single sporting event.
In this case, once we have the match established for analysis, we must apply the following recommendations:
- Compare the Odds for a Market Across Different Nigerian Bookmakers: To find value bets, it’s essential not to limit yourself to just one bookmaker, as each may miscalculate the odds for different events.
- Detecting Changes in Odds Value: The odds for an event will not be the same three days before the start of the match as they are in the moments leading up to it. Their value can increase or decrease depending on the volume of bets placed in either direction.
- Stay Tuned to the Latest Match Updates: Announcements that the weather will be very unstable, or that a key player will miss the match due to injury or unforeseen circumstances, can affect the odds. However, before this information impacts the odds, we can get ahead and bet at the highest possible value if we pay attention and act before the bookmakers.
How to Identify a Value Proposition?
As we mentioned before, a value bet cannot be identified using a mathematical formula; it’s more a product of the bettor’s experience and observational skills. It’s actually very difficult to determine that odds are showing a higher value than the probabilities actually indicate, since sports are always unpredictable.
However, we can apply certain mathematical calculations to roughly determine whether or not we are facing a value bet, although intuition and previous experience are still necessary and, ultimately, the most important factors.
How is the Value Calculated in a Value Bet?
A mathematical formula for calculating the value of a ‘value bet’ involves multiplying the odds offered by the bookmaker by the estimated probability. If the result exceeds 100, it’s considered a value bet; otherwise, it isn’t.
Let’s look at an example. We have a Real Madrid vs Barcelona match where the odds are 1.90 for a home win, 3.30 for a draw, and 2.30 for an away win. If we establish that both teams have a 50% chance of winning.
Therefore: [1.90 * 50 = 95] [2.20 * 50 = 1.10].
Therefore, the odds for a Barça victory would be considered a value bet. However, the value of the estimated probability is not established mathematically, but rather is a subjective matter that we can derive from the statistical analysis of both teams (how they are approaching the match, their recent results overall and in their head-to-head record, whether either team has significant absences, who tends to win more often at each other’s home ground, etc.).
What is the Correlation Between Probability and Odds?
The odds set by bookmakers are correlated with the probability of each team winning. Therefore, the more favored a team is to win, the lower its odds will be.
Thus, value bets are based on the assumption that the correlation between probability and odds is not accurately calculated, and that a team has a greater chance of winning than its odds suggest. However, as we have seen, the estimated probability is a subjective calculation, so both the bookmaker and we ourselves can be wrong in establishing it.
Furthermore, and especially in football, correctly calculating a team’s probability of winning does not guarantee success, as there are hundreds of circumstances that can alter the development and outcome of a match.
Examples of value bets:
Let’s look at some more examples of value bets.
Example 1:
Manchester City vs Chelsea
1.65 vs 2.10
60% vs 40%
[1.65 * 60 = 99] [2.10 * 40 = 84].
In this case, we would not have any value bet by setting those values for the estimated probability of both winning.
Example 2:
Manchester City vs Chelsea
1.65 vs 2.10
65% vs 35%
[1.65 * 65 = 107.25] [2.10 * 35 = 73.5].
If we were to increase the estimated probability of Manchester City winning, due to them playing at home and coming off a great winning streak and beating Chelsea in recent matches, then the odds for a Manchester City victory would indeed be a value bet.
Therefore, the key to finding a value bet lies in our ability to correctly establish the estimated probability of each team winning.
Odds Comparison Tool to Find Value Bets
Comparing odds across different bookmakers can be a tedious and complicated task, requiring significant time and effort. That’s why odds comparison websites exist, allowing us to automate the process and offering a quick solution.
Here are some odds comparison tools you can use for free in Nigeria:
Tips for Your Value Bets
Let’s go over some simple tips to improve our abilities as value bet finders.
- Use Odds Comparison Websites: This tool is essential for saving time and mental stress, as it allows you to check the odds for a given event at multiple bookmakers at a single glance.
- Gain Experience Through Trial and Error: Although it’s not the system one would choose to invest their money, it’s necessary to repeatedly experiment with different value bets to develop skill in establishing estimated probabilities for team victories.
- Seek Advice from Experts: Especially at the beginning, it’s crucial to seek guidance from experts in value betting, as they have the prior experience to identify and capitalize on these opportunities.
Conclusion
Becoming an expert in value betting requires time, knowledge, and experience, and the rewards are often not what one might expect. Nevertheless, this type of prediction allows us to outsmart the bookmakers and potentially earn more than the real stake if we’re right, which is one of its main attractions.
In short, value betting is a very interesting alternative to traditional predictions and, apart from the possible financial reward, offers an emotional and exciting component that is not found in other types of betting.
