We are looking at one of the markets that has emerged most strongly in recent years in the world of football betting. Tracking a team’s attacking play, including their total shots or shots on target, has a recreational element and is easy to follow, making it one of the most popular bets.
Below, we’ll see how to bet on shots, types of shot bets available, and everything else you need to know about this type of bet.
Types of Shot Bets on Football Matches
Let’s start with the basics. The types of shots that can occur in football are:
- shots on target,
- blocked shots,
- shots against the post,
- and shots wide.
All of these combined give the total number of shots, which is what people usually bet on in football. Shots on target are another type of shot that is also commonly bet on and tends to offer better payouts.
It is very important to know how to differentiate between total shots on goal: those that go between the three posts and are saved, scored, or blocked in the last instance.
What is a Shot on Target?
Very simple: a shot that goes between the posts and ends in any of the following three outcomes: goal, save, or block by a defender on the goal line.
It is important to pay attention to this last scenario because only a shot that is blocked by a defender will count as a shot on goal if it meets these conditions:
- The defender blocks on the goal line: There may be a case where it doesn’t have to be on the line, and that is when the goalkeeper is out of their goal. For example, when coming out to intercept a ball outside the penalty area or during a false start on a corner kick.
- The goalkeeper has no chance of stopping that shot: For example, a corner kick where the goalkeeper is at the near post and a defender blocks the ball on the goal line at the far post. The goalkeeper would never have reached it, and it was a guaranteed goal, so the shot counts as a goal due to the defender’s block.
- The positions of the blocker and the goalkeeper are key: If a shot is blocked at the edge of the six-yard box and it’s clear the goalkeeper wouldn’t be able to reach it, but they are on their goal line, it will NOT count as a shot on target. It will be a blocked shot.
In short, if the goalkeeper is on their goal line, a blocked shot outside the goal line will never count as a shot on target.
Important:
For a shot to count as such, it must always go forward. Even if there is an intention to shoot, but the ball goes behind the shooter due to poor contact, it will never be registered as a shot.
Best Bookmakers for Betting on Shots in Nigeria
It’s a booming market that almost all bookmakers have entered in recent seasons. In my opinion, 1XBet was not only one of the pioneers, but it also continues to be one of the bookmakers with the best offerings for betting on shots.
It’s not just 1XBet; other bookmakers like Paripesa, 22Bet, BetJara, Betano, and Greenbet also offer this market. The vast majority of them offer betting on the top five European leagues and major European/international tournaments such as the Champions League, Europa League, and World Cups/European Championships.
How to Bet On Shots On Goal: Best Strategies
Among the various betting market strategies, the shots on goal market is purely statistical and analytical. Many factors can influence whether a team achieves its average number of shots per game and whether the odds offered hold value.
Match Context: Few players are equally involved in the opponent’s penalty area in every match. It’s necessary to analyze the upcoming match, the needs of both teams, the opponent’s playing style, and so on. Everything plays a role in predicting whether teams will have many shots on goal or not.
Home vs. Away: Speaking of context, one of the main and clearest factors is playing at home or away. Shot averages change significantly, especially for mid-to-lower-table teams.
Opponent Statistics: A player might have a certain average rating, but you always have to look at what the opponent concedes. Getafe doesn’t concede the same number of shots as Valladolid. Studying the opponent well can allow you to take riskier bets beyond the player’s average rating.
What to Consider When Betting on Shots Market
- Look for matches where the home team doesn’t average many shots, but they’re playing against a weaker opponent, and you expect more from them. There can be some very good odds.
- The local or visitor factor is vital in this market.
- Shots on target have better odds; they can be a better option than totals, but they are more difficult at times.
- If you’re betting on this in a live market, take advantage when one team takes the lead. There could be some very interesting odds opportunities.
What to Avoid When Betting on Shots Market
Pay attention to the context of the matches. A player or team’s average performance is not the same in a match where their team is going to attack a lot as in one where they are going to defend most of the time.
Avoid away games if you’re betting on very tight odds.
It’s very important to know what a shot on goal is before betting on this market. This guide explains it in detail above.
It’s a very illiquid market. The odds tend to be very volatile live or when a lot of money is coming in.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is a shot counted in a bet?
It’s important to note that a shot can be on target, blocked, hit the post, or go wide. Any of these counts as a total shot for bookmakers.
What happens if a referee whistles for offside after a shot has been taken?
This situation is very common now that VAR often allows play to continue. This shot will never count towards your bets; the offside rule invalidates it.
Which company provides statistical services to betting companies?
Almost all Nigerian bookmakers work with Opta Sports (Stats Perform). Everything we’ve told you in this article is governed by this company’s rules for betting.
Does a shot that hits the post count as a shot on goal?
No, it will only count towards total shots, not shots on target, if the shot hits the post. If the goalkeeper gets a touch on it first and it hits the post, it will count as a shot on target (and will also count towards total shots, as expected).
Is it possible to bet on live matches?
Yes, it’s not the most common thing, but sites like SportyBet and Spade already offer it in their services.
