Football is the most popular sport among all sports betting sites, and therefore, it has the most available markets. As with any sport, to succeed in online betting, you need to be methodical and apply strategies.
Here, you’ll learn the best football betting strategies. With concrete examples, the goal is for you to know how they work so you can then use them on the right matches.
The Best Football Betting Strategies that Work in 2026
Every football bettor wants to improve their win rate on their betting, and below we’ll present the best approach to bet on football games in 2026.
Betting Strategy: Over or Under 2.5 goals
The over/under betting market is enjoying great success in football betting for two reasons: first, it usually offers attractive odds; and second, it doesn’t require predicting the winner of the match or the exact number of goals.
What Does the “Over/Under” Goals Market Consist Of?
It’s very easy. It consists of predicting how many goals will be scored in the match. Here we’ll focus on the “2.5 goals” option, although the bookmakers will offer much higher odds (3.5, 4.5, etc.).
Therefore, if you bet on “Over 2.5 goals,” you’re betting that 3 or more goals will be scored in the match. Conversely, if you bet on “Under 2.5 goals,” you’re betting that 2 or fewer goals will be scored in the match (the only valid results for this bet are 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, or 1-1).
Click to see our Daily Over/Under 2.5 Goals Predictions page.
How and When to Apply this Betting Strategy?
The first thing you need to do is the same as for any other match: analyze the two teams that are going to face each other. Remember that it’s always necessary to do a preliminary study of the match to understand the teams’ current form and determine what might happen during the game.
In general, the “Over 2.5 goals” strategy is often used in matches where one team is the heavy favorite (a big team against a small team) and where a high-scoring game is expected. This doesn’t guarantee it will happen, but it does occur quite frequently.
It’s a recurring theme, especially when the big team is playing at home. If the match is played away by the underdog, they usually sit back defensively, making a 0-1 or 0-2 scoreline more likely.
As with other sports betting strategies, analyzing the match is key. For example, knowing what has happened in previous matches between the two teams (the more recent the last time they faced each other, the better) will give you an idea of which bet to choose: “Over” or “Under.”
Sometimes teams meet in the Cup, and if the smaller team has suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of the larger team, they often learn from their mistakes when they meet again in the League, defend very well, and press more intensely. In these situations, betting on the “Under 2.5 goals” market can be the best idea.
Simple Bets on Even and Over 2.5 Goals
You can also combine the “over 2.5 goals” strategy with another complementary bet (we’re not making a combined bet, but rather placing two separate bets). The aim is to cover most possible outcomes, thus reducing the risk associated with your main bet. In this case, we’ll combine “over 2.5 goals” with a bet on an even score.
Betting on even-numbered goals would cover any match result with an even total, such as draws: 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, etc. But it would also cover results with even totals like 2-0, 3-1, 4-2, and so on. With over 2.5 goals, we cover wins with odd totals, such as 2-1, 3-2, 4-1, etc. Therefore, the only two results that would cause us to lose the bet are 1-0 and 0-1.
It seems very simple, but for it to work, you have to pay close attention to the odds you’re betting on. To cover any potential losses, the odds for the pair should be between 1.80 and 1.85 (as is usually the case), and the odds for over 2.5 goals should be above 2.20.
Example with a total bet of 10 naira:
- We bet ₦5.40 on the “even result” at odds @1.85
- We bet ₦4.60 on “over 2.5 goals” at odds of @2.25
Possible results:
Match result 1-0 or 0-1 – We lose the 10 units
- If we correctly predict the over 2.5 but not the pair (1-2, 2-1, 3-2, etc.), we recover ₦4.95 (profit of +₦0.35).
- If we correctly predict the pair but not the over 2.5 (0-0, 1-1), it will be a VOID, or we will have minimal losses, depending on the odds. [(5.40 x @1.85) – 5.40] – 4.60 = -0.01 naira.
- If we correctly predict the pair and the over 2.5 (2-2, 3-3, 3-1, 4-2…), we recover 20.34 naira (profit +10.34 naira).
To apply this strategy correctly, we advise you to study the different football leagues well and avoid competitions where many 1-0 or 0-1 results are seen.
Combined Bet on Even and Under 2.5 Goals
In this case, we’ll place a combined bet (even and under 2.5 goals) to increase the odds of our final bet. This is a very different strategy from what we discussed above, as it’s a combined bet, and the objective isn’t to hedge our main bet. Understanding this difference is crucial.
The possible scores in the ‘Under 2.5 goals’ market include: 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0. As you can see, four of these six scores result in an even number of goals. The probability of an even number of goals in a match with fewer than 2.5 goals is 66.66%. This is twice as likely as the odds (33.33%) for an even number of goals, making this strategy particularly attractive.
Click to see our Daily Draw or Under 2.5 Goals Predictions page.
Bet on Halftime/Fulltime
The name of this market alone tells you what betting on the half-time and full-time results of a football match involves. Essentially, the idea is to predict what will happen at half-time and at the final whistle: home win, draw, away win. There are up to 9 possible combinations: 1/1, 1/X, 1/2, X/1, X/X, X/2, 2/1, 2/X, 2/2.
The most interesting aspect of this type of bet is that its odds are significantly higher than those of a 1X2 bet. If we see a match clearly favoring one of the teams, we can bet on them winning at halftime and at full time.
The odds will be much higher than if we simply bet on their victory. Obviously, it carries more risk than betting on the winner, but if, through thorough analysis, we determine that one team is far superior, it can be worthwhile.
Bet on Both Teams Score
The “both teams to score” market is easy to use and offers more attractive odds than, for example, the match winner. To win this market, both teams simply need to score. The total score and the winner are irrelevant.
It’s a market that offers a lot of possibilities, but you need to understand it very well to be able to do it without making mistakes. For example, since both teams need to score, it wouldn’t be advisable to choose very lopsided matches, especially those where the favorites are playing at home. Therefore, we’ll look for matches where there’s greater parity, something that will encourage both teams to play aggressively and attack.
It’s also not a bad idea to bet on matches where one of the big teams plays at the home of a smaller team. Depending on the team, sometimes the underdog tries to put on a good performance in front of their home crowd, and that encourages them to play an attacking style.
Finally, it’s worth noting that this strategy is most effective in the final matches of the season. For example, if two teams are fighting to avoid relegation, or if teams are vying for European qualification or the league title.
In these final matches, there’s usually something at stake, and an attacking approach often leads teams to neglect their defense. This results in a higher number of goals, a phenomenon common to all leagues.
If you want to cover your bases, you can combine this market with an “under 2.5 goals” bet, but you must carefully calculate the stake to invest, according to the odds offered.
Click to see our Daily Both Teams to Score Predictions page.
Exact Score Betting Strategy
The exact score betting strategy is one of the riskiest, but also one of the most profitable. It consists of predicting the exact score of a match; simply guessing the winner is not enough. For example, FC Barcelona 2 – 0 Valencia CF.
When do we recommend betting on the exact score? Here are the 3 points we consider:
- The odds for the under 2.5 goals market: To determine if a match is likely to have few goals, we should look at the odds for the under 2.5 goals market. If these odds are less than or equal to 1.75, it means the match will likely be low-scoring, fulfilling the first step of our strategy.
- Match where the away team is the favorite: We must then verify that the away team is indeed the favorite. We don’t want them to be too heavily favored, as this could lead to a blowout. For this reason, we should look at the odds for the away team, and if they fall within the range of 1.50 to 2.10, the second point will be met.
- We want the home team to be defensive: We’re interested in the home team being defensive. This, combined with the away team being the favorite and the expectation of a low-scoring game, reduces (at least initially) our options for betting on the exact score.
After verifying that the three points above are met, we can put this strategy into practice. If we have followed all the steps correctly, the bookmaker should pay between 7.00 and 9.00 for a 0-1 or 0-2 result for the away team.
To further reduce the risk of your bet, you can bet on both 0-1 and 0-2, so that you win the same amount of money whether either result is correct. For example, if 0-1 pays out at 7.50 and you want to win back ₦10, you should bet ₦1.35, while for 0-2, if it pays out at 9.00, you should bet ₦1.12. This way, with this exact score betting strategy, you’ll have wagered ₦2.47 and have potential gross winnings of ₦8.70/₦9.
- Result 0-1: we recovered 9 naira (1.35 x @7.5) – 1.12
- Result 0-2: we recovered 8.73 naira (1.12 x @9) – 1.35
- Any other result: we lose 2.47 naira
Covering an “Under 2.5” Bet with the Correct Score
This strategy involves hedging our under 2.5 goals bet (which can be quite tricky) with a bet on the exact score. We then select a close match with the home team as a slight favorite (odds between 1.60 and 2.00).
The odds for under 2.5 goals should be at least 1.80 to provide ample margin, and a pre-match analysis should always be conducted to select the right games. Remember that the main bet, and the one that will generate profit, is the under 2.5 goals bet. The exact score bet would only serve as a safety net.
The exact results we will use to cover are 2-1 and 3-0, which are the most likely outcomes among those that occur with 3 goals, given the parameters we have described above for selecting matches.
Accumulator Bets with Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap is a very popular market in football, and we’ll explain a strategy for combining it with other bets. Remember that the handicap adds a disadvantage to the favorite and an advantage to the underdog. It’s a perfect market when there’s a significant difference between the teams.
With a handicap, the favorite’s odds will be improved, provided they win by the corresponding goal difference. For example, if the handicap is -2.5, the favorite team must win by a 3-goal margin. It also works in reverse: if you believe the underdog can make things difficult, you can use the handicap to start the match with a 2.5-goal advantage.
Which Type of Asian Handicap Should I Choose?
As always, we recommend thoroughly researching the matches before placing a bet. If you’re going to place a handicap on a top team to win, you should make sure there’s a high probability of a multiple-goal victory. If the opposing teams are strong defensively or tough to beat, it’s best not to bet or select a low handicap.
Generally, it’s best to choose matches where the big teams are playing at home, as there’s a higher chance of a high-scoring game. Normally, the odds for a win will be low (1.1 or 1.2, depending on the team), but with a handicap, you can find odds around 2.
We can also look at mid-table teams that are very strong at home. We’re talking about teams with a huge difference in results between home and away games. That’s where we can try to use the Asian handicap to try and get better odds.
Remember that Asian handicap betting means that draws void the bet, eliminating the risk of losing your accumulator due to a tie. This provides a degree of security when betting with the handicap and potentially generating higher profits.
What Bet Should You Combine with Handicap?
Depending on the handicap bet we choose, the odds can be higher or lower, and we might not want to risk too much on a high-risk bet, as that could ruin the entire accumulator. We recommend combining it with a bet on the same match (to focus on a single game) that has a relatively high probability of winning.
For example, if you decide to bet on the Asian handicap for the big team to win at home, you can combine it with a bet on the team’s star player (Leo Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, etc.) scoring a goal. Ideally, choose a low-risk bet with odds around 1.4 or 1.5.
How to Play Responsibly
For years, the industry has promoted Responsible Gambling so that players can have greater control over their bets. To gamble responsibly, you should never forget that gambling is a form of entertainment and should never become a major part of your life.
With that in mind, when starting in sports betting, it’s recommended to thoroughly study how it works. And sites like ours are a fundamental part of that. A player with extensive betting knowledge will have better control.
In addition, it’s recommended to set a maximum betting budget so you don’t spend money you haven’t budgeted for. You can also use the tools that some bookmakers offer to limit playing time and deposits.
Hi!! I’m Benson, a Nigerian based writer, researcher and football analyst with more than 3 years of experience. My work is brought to you by my passion for sports.
