Preview
A title-deciding fixture is on the cards today as Atletico Madrid welcome Real Madrid for the Madrid derby at the Wanda Metropolitano stadium.
Atletico Madrid, having made a strong start to the campaign, had been able to open up a strong lead at the top. However, recent failings against the likes of Celta Vigo and Levante have allowed both Barcelona and Real Madrid to make up good ground on them, with Diego Simeone’s men boasting only a five-point lead over the second-placed Catalans.
Atleti did end a three-game winless run with a 2-0 victory over Villarreal last weekend but things will get tricky when their neighbours come visiting on Sunday. Zinedine Zidane’s men are unbeaten in their last five league outings, which has helped them reduce the gap to Atletico to five points.
However, Los Blancos did see their four-game winning run in the Spanish top-flight get halted on Monday as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Real Sociedad at home. They will be hoping to return to winning ways this weekend and in the process move closer to the league leaders.
The first El Derbi Madrileno of the season had ended in a 2-0 win for Real courtesy of a Casemiro strike and an own goal by Jan Oblak.
Form Guide: Atletico Madrid
Atletico are currently top of the table, five points clear of third-placed Real Madrid, while Diego Simeone’s side still have a game in hand over both Los Blancos and second-placed Barcelona.
Atletico actually had a wobble in the league between February 8 and February 20 as they won just one of their four matches, suffering a shock 2-0 home defeat to Levante in their last match at Wanda Metropolitano.
The capital giants returned to winning ways in impressive fashion last weekend, though, as an own goal from Alfonso Pedraza and second-half Joao Felix effort saw them record a 2-0 victory away to Villarreal.
Simeone’s side are the second-highest goal-scorers behind Barca, netting 47 times in their 24 matches, with 16 of those coming from Luis Suarez, who has proved to be an inspired signing for the club.
Defensively, meanwhile, Atletico have again been excellent, conceding just 16 times, which is unsurprisingly the best record in Spain’s top flight ahead of Sevilla, who have shipped just 18 goals.
A win over Real Madrid could more or less end Real Madrid’s hopes of winning the title but a draw or a defeat could make things interesting at the top.
Form Guide: Real Madrid
Real Madrid, as mentioned, currently occupy third position in the table, having picked up 53 points from their 25 matches this season courtesy of 16 wins and five draws.
Zinedine Zidane’s side have struggled during periods of the season and will enter this match off the back of a 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad on March 1; Portu’s 55th-minute goal looked to be securing all three points for the visitors, only for Vinicius Junior to level the scores in the 89th minute.
Los Blancos are in good form, though, winning five of their last six in all competitions, including four of their last five in Spain’s top flight to pull themselves into the title picture at this stage.
Injuries have been a big problem for Real Madrid in recent weeks, but they have managed to negotiate through a difficult period with an impressive set of results, and a relatively kind run of matches will see them face Elche, Celta Vigo and Eibar in their next three league encounters after this one.
Going by history, Real Madrid have seen more than favorable results against their rivals and they’ll be hoping that carries on once again today.
How the Match Could Go
Simeone hasn’t enjoyed much success over Zinedine Zidane across his career, so he is likely to be as cautious as ever this weekend, which does not bode well for the neutral looking for a goal-fest. In fact, Simeone has won just 12.5% of his games vs Zidane in La Liga (one win, four draws, three defeats).
His side have fired a blank in their last three league games against Real (335 minutes) since Antoine Griezmann’s goal in February 2019, while there have been under 2.5 goals scored in nine of the last 11 Madrid derbies in La Liga. Another cagey affair is looking likely.
This is a very, very difficult match to call for obvious reasons, and there is simply no downplaying the importance of the contest to both sides. Atletico have managed to recover a number of key players for this game, which should hand them an advantage, but Real Madrid’s injury situation is improving and a returning Benzema could help them claim a point at Wanda Metropolitano.
Interesting stat: Scoring first in this game might be crucial for both sides. In fact, the team that’s scored first hasn’t lost any of the previous 30 competitive derbies and we can expect both teams to push for an early goal.
Tip: Double Chance
Simply because of what is at stake today, we expect that one team will overcome the other by any means possible and there’ll be a winner after 90 minutes. Three out of their last four La Liga encounters has seen a winner and we expect that to carry on once again today.Bet9ja have 1.31 odds, Bet365 have 1.33 and 1xbet have 1.38.
Over 1.5 Goals
Despite the possibility of a cagey affair, it’s not out of place to expect at least two goals in this fixture. Atletico Madrid have scored at least two goals alone in four out of their last five La Liga fixtures. Real Madrid have also scored at least two goals alone in three out of their last five La Liga outings with the exception of their last two games where they only scored one goal apiece. However, this game should go, there is everything pointing to at least two goals scored at the Wanda Metropolitano stadium today. Bet9ja have 1.39 odds while Bet365 and 1xbet have 1.44.
Anytime Goal-scorer (Atletico Madrid)
Luis Suarez
We earlier mentioned above that Atletico have fired a blank in their last three league games against Real Madrid since Antoine Griezmann’s goal in February 2019. But, if one player is going to break that scoring duck in Madrid derbies for the hosts, then it is Luis Suarez. The Uruguayan has scored nine goals in 12 games against Real in La Liga, more than any other player in the competition since his first season in 2014/15. He is also on superb form this season with 16 goals to his name. There is slight value for him to score with both Bet9ja and Bet365 offering 2.50 odds.
Marcos Llorente
After Luis Suarez, the Spanish forward has been the next best scorer for Atletico in La Liga this season with eight goals to his name. Llorente is also on form at the moment and has been involved in four (two goals, two assists) out of Atletico’s last seven goals. If Suarez fails to hit the back of the net, he might be the next best thing for Atletico in search of a goal. There is massive forward with the Spaniard, Bet365 have 4.50 odds while Bet9ja have it even better at 5.75.
Anytime Goal-scorer (Real Madrid)
Karim Benzema
Having missed the last three games with an ankle problem, Karim Benzema is back to return and travelled with the Real Madrid squad. On another day, he might have started from the bench but given the importance of this game, he’s expected to start. He remains Los Blancos’ top scorer so far with 12 goals and he’ll be motivated to step up for his side in a big game against their rivals. Bet365 have 2.30 odds while Bet9ja have 2.85.
Vinicius Junior
Asides Benzema, it’s an extremely difficult sport to predict who could score for Real Madrid. However, Vinicius seems to have benefitted from recent injuries as he has seen more game time than usual. Last time out, he brought a spark when he was introduced off the bench and eventually marked his 100th Madrid appearance with a goal. In the event that he gets the nod to start, he could come as a value bet to score once again. The Brazilian youngster is also worth a good punt with Bet365 offering 3.75 odds and Bet9ja having theirs at 4.00.
Football Lover. All-round junkie of the beautiful game. Could be found watching football most of the time. If not he’s writing about them or making some punditry you don’t agree with. A certain bias for Arsenal and Santos FC.
